The Era of High-Stakes Uncertainty

The era of slow government is over. An era of high-stakes uncertainty is just beginning. After years of escalating gridlock and deference, Congress is no longer setting the agenda. The days of deliberation, negotiation, and delay on Capitol Hill have been replaced by swift executive action.

Today, we’re watching a presidency that doesn’t wait. Major decisions — on trade, education, federal spending, and everywhere else — are made (and unmade) every day.  A single executive order, speech, or social post can swing markets, upend industries, or create existential risk for companies overnight.

The past week of seismic tariff activity is just the latest example. The escalating expansion of executive powers is creating unprecedented uncertainty for every company in every corner of the world.

Trade policy is the most visible and impactful example, but it is merely the very sharp tip of a very large iceberg. Less than three months into the new administration, law firms, institutions of higher education, media companies, and other organizations — large and small — have experienced sudden and, at times, existential challenges stemming from executive actions.=

What worked in the past — quiet lobbying, waiting for the right moment, assuming predictability — may not work anymore. The rules of engagement are changing. Fast.

What it Means

Businesses should be thinking less about if they will cross paths with the administration, and more about when and how. Executive branch issues come in many shapes and sizes, but they consistently present three major challenges.

• Attention and outrage are spread thin: The speed and volume of the White House’s activity has confounded political opponents for more than a decade. The same “flood the zone” approach is a challenge for organizations looking to corral attention and build momentum. By the time a company develops its response, media and stakeholder energy has shifted to the next headline.
• Negative partisanship is powerful: Companies seeking to push back on an executive action may find that amplifying opposition to the action from certain voices is ultimately counterproductive.
• Allies may be reluctant: There is a strong incentive for companies that are not directly impacted by an executive action to avoid getting involved, particularly if they have existing political capital or partnerships with the administration. Organizations facing existential challenges may find that their usual defenders are less vocal.

What to Do About It

Finding an Antidote to Uncertainty

Every organization should be taking deliberate steps to protect its license to operate in today’s volatile environment. Companies must pressure test assumptions, reexamine stakeholder priorities, and build decision-making muscle for moments when speed and clarity matter most. There is no one-size-fits-all playbook, but there are smart, proactive actions that can help companies stay ahead of risk, respond with confidence, and position themselves for resilience — no matter what comes next.

1. Locate Your Emergency Exits

In moments of conflict with the administration, some organizations have solved existential risks by taking actions that relieve pressure, while others have stood firm and turned to powerful stakeholders and the legal system. Now is the time for companies to assess potential scenarios, align on an approach, and identify actions they would be willing to take. Waiting to make these decisions until crisis hits can allow panic to replace strategy while robbing communications teams of valuable time to formulate messages for internal and external stakeholders.

2. Make New Friends, Open New Doors

The steady collapse of bipartisanship in Washington has created not just information silos but influence silos as well. Particularly in an era of one-party control, stakeholders outside the governing coalition have little or no direct influence on policymaking — but the cyclical nature of today’s politics means voices across the political spectrum are always one election away from becoming critical influencers.

Companies must be intentional and diligent in understanding areas of common ground with a broader range of influencers and developing a more well-rounded group of allies. They must be equally focused on cultivating a diverse bench of internal voices as well.

 3. Treat Employees as Adults

In the face of sustained political and economic instability, employees have generally become more pragmatic about the actions leaders must take to defend and grow the business. Companies should be proactive and transparent about articulating their approach internally, highlighting their responsibility to employees, customers, investors, and other key stakeholders. Internal communications can also provide a valuable platform to deliver authentic messages to external stakeholders.

4. Words Matter

Sustainability reports, internal employee initiatives, and other company content that may have been perceived as benign six months ago could cause unnecessary risk today. Companies should take time to review existing language and leverage diverse perspectives to identify potential potholes without compromising core values or business strategy. This is particularly important for organizations conducting advocacy campaigns that may draw increased attention and scrutiny.

5. Remember That Today’s Action Will Be Judged in Tomorrow’s Context

Certain scenarios do not afford companies the luxury of long-term thinking but, in most instances, companies are better served by thinking beyond the current moment. The quickest route out of a crisis is not always the best decision for the company long-term, and while more nuanced approaches involve higher degrees of difficulty, they can be critical to a business’ long-term success.

Take time to explore the second- and third-order effects of potential actions, understanding that any scenario plan should include clear prioritization of stakeholder interests. Political and cultural trends can feel inevitable one moment and obsolete the next. Companies should build scenario plans and take actions that they can stand by today, next week, and next year.

The Purple team has helped some of the world’s most well-known organizations scenario plan to navigate critical business challenges. If you need support, feel free to contact us — we are here to help.

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